Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 75

Chicago Bears 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

(14:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to TEN 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model