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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TEN
69.9%
CHI
30.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Matt Barkley (CHI): -0.423 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CHI starting Matt Barkley in place of Jay Cutler)
  • TEN offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Matt Barkley (CHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
CHI 17
Projected margin: TEN by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TEN

Phillip Supernaw TE Out Concussion
Daimion Stafford S Questionable Hamstring

CHI

Leonard Floyd LB Out Concussion
Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Shoulder
Josh Sitton G Doubtful Ankle
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Toe
Deiondre' Hall CB Questionable Ankle
Christian Jones LB Questionable Ankle
Mitch Unrein DE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 27
–
CHI 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:32 TD CHI (4:32) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 85-D.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 00:10 TD TEN (:10) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 09:16 TD TEN (9:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – CHI 7
  • Q2 01:23 TD TEN (1:23) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 18-R.Matthews for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – CHI 7
  • Q3 04:12 FG TEN (4:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 24 – CHI 7
  • Q4 13:50 FG TEN (13:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 27 – CHI 7
  • Q4 08:28 TD CHI (8:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short middle to 10-M.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – CHI 13
  • Q4 03:11 TD CHI (3:11) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 14-D.Thompson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 65%

    (13:01) (Pass formation) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Paulsen (21-D.Searcy).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to TEN 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to CHI 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to TEN 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 35 for 8 yards (53-J.Timu).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to TEN 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.08 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (4:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:06) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (13:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (3:11) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 14-D.Thompson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-E.Royal to CHI 35 for 4 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Thompson [31-K.Byard].