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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to CHI 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP