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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 7 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to TEN 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP