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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 95

Chicago Bears 7 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to CHI 48, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 95, worth -5.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model