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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP