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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 27 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model