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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 6

Chicago Bears 14 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 14-D.Thompson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model