4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 7

Chicago Bears 21 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Thompson [31-K.Byard].

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP