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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP