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HC Rex Ryan
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

BUF
48.6%
OAK
51.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
OAK 26
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BUF

Ronald Darby CB Out Concussion
Percy Harvin WR Out Illness
Robert Woods WR Out Knee
Lorenzo Alexander LB Questionable Ankle
Sergio Brown S Questionable Hamstring
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Abdomen
Mike Gillislee RB Questionable Hamstring
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Back
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Wrist
James Ihedigbo S Questionable Ankle
Richie Incognito G Questionable Neck
John Miller G Questionable Shoulder
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot

OAK

Shilique Calhoun LB Out Knee
D.J. Hayden CB Out Hamstring
Darius Latham DT Out Ankle
Stacy McGee DT Out Ankle
David Amerson CB Questionable Knee
Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Latavius Murray RB Questionable Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Perry Riley LB Questionable Hamstring
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 24
–
OAK 38

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:06 FG BUF (8:06) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – OAK 0
  • Q1 04:40 FG LV (4:40) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BUF 3 – OAK 3
  • Q2 13:31 TD BUF (13:31) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – OAK 3
  • Q2 03:01 FG LV (3:01) 11-S.Janikowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BUF 10 – OAK 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG LV (:05) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BUF 10 – OAK 9
  • Q3 14:08 TD BUF (14:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – OAK 9
  • Q3 09:05 TD BUF (9:05) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – OAK 9
  • Q3 05:22 TD LV (5:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – OAK 15
  • Q3 01:01 TD LV (1:01) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – OAK 22
  • Q4 14:15 TD LV (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – OAK 29
  • Q4 08:37 TD LV (8:37) (Shotgun) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – OAK 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:20) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:06) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 77%

    (4:40) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:46) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to LV 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:21) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to BUF 46, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-57-C.James.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:09) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to LV 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 30-J.Richard to BUF 38 for 17 yards (38-S.Brown).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to LV 41, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to LV 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at 50 for 25 yards (6-C.Schmidt). PENALTY on LV-56-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:06) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to BUF 4, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 18 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:28) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to BUF 29, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-58-T.Adams.