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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model