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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 38 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:28) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to BUF 29, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-58-T.Adams.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.77 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -0.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model