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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model