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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at CAR 46 for -10 yards (95-C.Johnson). CAR-95-C.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model