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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 20:30 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CAR
39.7%
SEA
60.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Cam Newton (CAR): -0.012 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.093 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CAR

Mario Addison DE Out Foot
Kurt Coleman S Out Concussion
Luke Kuechly LB Out Concussion
Daryl Williams T Out Ankle

SEA

Brock Coyle LB Out Foot
C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder
Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring
Jordan Tripp LB Out Thigh
Troymaine Pope RB Questionable Ankle
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Knee
Damontre Moore DE Questionable Foot
Luke Willson TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 7
–
SEA 40

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:26 FG SEA (13:26) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 06:47 TD SEA (6:47) 34-T.Rawls left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – SEA 9
  • Q2 10:40 TD CAR (10:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – SEA 10
  • Q2 09:53 TD SEA (9:53) 34-T.Rawls right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – SEA 16
  • Q2 01:49 FG SEA (1:49) 4-S.Hauschka 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 7 – SEA 20
  • Q2 00:10 FG SEA (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 7 – SEA 23
  • Q3 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) 16-T.Lockett right end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – SEA 29
  • Q4 11:12 TD SEA (11:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – SEA 36
  • Q4 03:32 FG SEA (3:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 7 – SEA 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (13:26) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 37 for 18 yards (5-M.Palardy). PENALTY on SEA-33-K.McCray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 15.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 46%

    (2:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to SEA 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-J.Cash. PENALTY on CAR-14-J.Webb, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 6.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%

    (13:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at CAR 46 for -10 yards (95-C.Johnson). CAR-95-C.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for 10 yards (84-E.Dickson).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (1:49) 4-S.Hauschka 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:30) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to SEA 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 12 yards (14-J.Webb). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (10:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:22) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to CAR 35, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.Benjamin. Penalty on CAR-13-K.Benjamin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%

    (9:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (3:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.