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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for 10 yards (84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model