4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-S.Hauschka 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model