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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.52 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model