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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model