Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 37 for 18 yards (5-M.Palardy). PENALTY on SEA-33-K.McCray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model