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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 37 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model