Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to SEA 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-J.Cash. PENALTY on CAR-14-J.Webb, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP

KICK -0.85 EP

46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
54% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model