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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to DAL 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model