DAL @ MIN — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Zimmer

Thursday 2016-12-01 · 20:25 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DAL

64.9%

MIN

35.1%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DAL offense: +0.243 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.351 EPA/dropback in prior starts
MIN defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
MIN offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
DAL defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25

–

MIN 22

Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin

Justin Durant LB Out Hamstring

Chaz Green T Out Back

J.J. Wilcox S Out Thigh

David Irving DE Questionable Illness

Sean Lee LB Questionable Illness

Barry Church S Questionable Forearm

Jack Crawford DE Questionable Foot

Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back

Terrell McClain DT Questionable Thigh

Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

MIN

Joe Berger C Out Concussion

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee

Marcus Sherels CB Out Rib

Mackensie Alexander CB Doubtful Groin

Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Knee

Terence Newman CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17

–

MIN 15

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 02:33 FG MIN (2:33) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DAL 0 – MIN 3
Q2 05:33 TD DAL (5:33) (Run formation) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – MIN 3
Q3 02:14 FG MIN (2:14) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DAL 7 – MIN 6
Q4 14:15 FG MIN (14:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DAL 7 – MIN 9
Q4 10:28 TD DAL (10:28) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – MIN 9
Q4 04:20 FG DAL (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 17 – MIN 9
Q4 00:30 TD MIN (:30) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 21-J.McKinnon for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – MIN 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(12:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 11 for 1 yard (51-K.Wilber).
Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(7:12) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 15 for 1 yard (57-A.Cole).
Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(5:54) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to MIN 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

(2:33) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 24%

(10:48) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to DAL 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

(3:24) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 16 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP

p(convert) 73%

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to MIN 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-C.Patterson.
Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(:25) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 25 yards to DAL 49, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-57-A.Cole.
Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 37%

(10:25) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DAL 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
Q3 DAL 4th & 13 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(7:09) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to MIN 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-51-K.Wilber.
Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

(2:14) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

(14:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(6:45) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to DAL 46, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

(4:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 64 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(3:08) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 34 for 2 yards (94-J.Trattou). PENALTY on DAL-35-K.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.
Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 72 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 53%

(2:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to MIN 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-C.Patterson MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-57-A.Cole at MIN 35. 57-A.Cole to MIN 35 for no gain (91-L.Ladouceur).