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Dallas Cowboys

11-1 HC Jason Garrett
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

6-6 HC Mike Zimmer
Thursday 2016-12-01 · 20:25 ET U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DAL
62.9%
MIN
37.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.243 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.351 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25 18–32
–
MIN 22 15–29
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Justin Durant LB Out Hamstring
Chaz Green T Out Back
J.J. Wilcox S Out Thigh
David Irving DE Questionable Illness
Sean Lee LB Questionable Illness
Barry Church S Questionable Forearm
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Foot
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Terrell McClain DT Questionable Thigh
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

MIN

Joe Berger C Out Concussion
Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Marcus Sherels CB Out Rib
Mackensie Alexander CB Doubtful Groin
Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Knee
Terence Newman CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17
–
MIN 15

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:33 FG MIN (2:33) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DAL 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 05:33 TD DAL (5:33) (Run formation) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – MIN 3
  • Q3 02:14 FG MIN (2:14) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DAL 7 – MIN 6
  • Q4 14:15 FG MIN (14:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DAL 7 – MIN 9
  • Q4 10:28 TD DAL (10:28) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – MIN 9
  • Q4 04:20 FG DAL (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 17 – MIN 9
  • Q4 00:30 TD MIN (:30) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 21-J.McKinnon for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – MIN 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 11 for 1 yard (51-K.Wilber).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:12) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 15 for 1 yard (57-A.Cole).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:54) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to MIN 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

    (2:33) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 24%

    (10:48) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to DAL 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (3:24) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 16 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to MIN 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-C.Patterson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:25) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 25 yards to DAL 49, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-57-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 37%

    (10:25) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DAL 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:09) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to MIN 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-51-K.Wilber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (2:14) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (14:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:45) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to DAL 46, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 34 for 2 yards (94-J.Trattou). PENALTY on DAL-35-K.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to MIN 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-C.Patterson MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-57-A.Cole at MIN 35. 57-A.Cole to MIN 35 for no gain (91-L.Ladouceur).

    See the full breakdown →