4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to MIN 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP