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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to DAL 46, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model