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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 21

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model