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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 15 for 1 yard (57-A.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model