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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model