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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 89

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to IND 43, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at IND 49 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin; 39-A.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model