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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Monday 2016-12-05 · 20:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

IND
49.2%
NYJ
50.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): -0.020 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • IND on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Clayton Geathers S Out Neck
Robert Mathis LB Out Bicep
Patrick Robinson CB Out Groin
Denzelle Good T Questionable Shoulder
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Back
Hassan Ridgeway DT Questionable Back

NYJ

Jalin Marshall WR Out Concussion
Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring
Calvin Pryor S Out Concussion
Lorenzo Mauldin LB Doubtful Ankle
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle
Bruce Carter LB Questionable Quadricep
Breno Giacomini T Questionable Back
Marcus Williams CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 41
–
NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:29 TD IND (10:29) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 83-D.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 07:53 TD IND (7:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 83-D.Allen for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 10:36 FG NYJ (10:36) 2-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 14 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 08:25 FG IND (8:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 17 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 01:24 TD IND (1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 83-D.Allen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 08:59 TD IND (8:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 30 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 01:11 FG IND (1:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 34 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD IND (15:00) 33-R.Turbin right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 40 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 11:26 TD NYJ (11:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 41 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to IND 43, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at IND 49 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin; 39-A.Allen).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to IND 31, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 32%

    (:12) 45-M.Overton to IND 41 for -12 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by IND-1-P.McAfee at IND 40. 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to NYJ 3, downed by IND-40-C.Milton.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (10:36) 2-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 63%

    (8:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to IND 9, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-C.Rogers to IND 39 for 30 yards (4-L.Edwards).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%

    (1:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short right to 15-B.Marshall to NYJ 49 for 4 yards (30-R.Melvin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:09) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to NYJ 14, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete deep right to 15-B.Marshall.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (1:57) 34-J.Ferguson right end to NYJ 9 for 11 yards (48-Jo.Jenkins).