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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model