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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 31 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP