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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 41 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to NYJ 14, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP