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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 59

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 41

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete deep right to 15-B.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model