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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 41 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 34-J.Ferguson right end to NYJ 9 for 11 yards (48-Jo.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP