Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(9:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to IND 31, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model