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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 56

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP