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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 45-M.Overton to IND 41 for -12 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by IND-1-P.McAfee at IND 40. 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to NYJ 3, downed by IND-40-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model