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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 26 yards to BAL 12, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model