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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIA
48.5%
BAL
51.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.084 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): +0.082 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIA

Mike Pouncey C Out Hip
Xavien Howard CB Doubtful Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Back
Branden Albert T Questionable Wrist
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Calf
Kenyan Drake RB Questionable Knee
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Shoulder
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Hamstring
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee
Earl Mitchell DT Questionable Back

BAL

Crockett Gillmore TE Out Thigh
Alex Lewis T Out Ankle
Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Out Thigh
Javorius Allen RB Doubtful non football injury
Kamar Aiken WR Questionable Thigh
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 6
–
BAL 38

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 TD BAL (11:02) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 28-T.West for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 03:22 TD BAL (3:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 88-D.Pitta for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 02:17 TD BAL (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 88-D.Pitta for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG BAL (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker has made 35 consecutive FGA. MIA 0 – BAL 24
  • Q4 14:47 TD MIA (14:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-D.Parker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BAL 24
  • Q4 12:58 TD BAL (12:58) (No Huddle) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 18-B.Perriman for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BAL 30
  • Q4 06:00 TD BAL (6:00) 28-T.West right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BAL 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 80%

    (6:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:16) 30-K.Dixon left end to MIA 44 for 10 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 58%

    (11:13) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 26 yards to BAL 12, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 45%

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 89-S.Smith ran ob at MIA 35 for 8 yards.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:06) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BAL 15, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (9:33) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 16 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 24%

    (5:03) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to BAL 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-D.Hester to BAL 12 for -1 yards (40-L.Pitts). PENALTY on BAL-24-S.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 12.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (2:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to BAL 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-D.Hester to BAL 45 for 14 yards (42-S.Paysinger). PENALTY on BAL-91-M.Judon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 32%

    (8:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to BAL 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-D.Hester to BAL 29 for 4 yards (45-M.Hull).