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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 89-S.Smith ran ob at MIA 35 for 8 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model