Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

(1:06) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BAL 15, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.25 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model