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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 16 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model