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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to BAL 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-D.Hester to BAL 12 for -1 yards (40-L.Pitts). PENALTY on BAL-24-S.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at BAL 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.41 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model