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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP