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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 38

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to BAL 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 14-D.Hester to BAL 29 for 4 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model