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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP