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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 30-K.Dixon left end to MIA 44 for 10 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.89 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model